How Commodities Predict can benefit you

CP has knowledgeable commodity market contacts

Mar 26, 2024

They include traders, analysts, mining and agricultural executives. Trade officials and market regulators provide data on investment and speculation.

Commodities Predict posts will be succinct, focused and unbiased

Writing will be tight e.g. 600 to 750 words per article.

News Behind the News

CP aims to produce news behind the news. News breakers, news backgrounders and investigations. CP will attribute research and reports. Sources can speak off the record and CP will protect confidentiality.

Published data is old news in dynamic fast-moving markets

Many traders and analysts react to published data that are out of date. In the short run, prices can surge or fall on announcement days. But knee jerk moves tend to reverse.

CP examines topics from a distance. The aim is to help readers adapt to different possibilities. These are surprise events, change in economic circumstances, elections and geopolitical traumas.

Wars and peace treaties are geopolitical examples. Say Russia wants to negotiate peace with Ukraine. The market begins to react to the possibility. Russia is a major producer of oil, natural gas and metals. Ukraine exports large quantities of wheat and corn. Will prices of these commodities tumble? Is an armistice already priced in the market?

El Nino and La Nino cause droughts, fires and floods that affect food production and prices.

Van Gogh’s Wheat Fields—-magnificent then, in danger from drought now

CP monitors the US Federal Reserve Board and other central banks

Easy money encourages investors and speculators to buy gold and other commodities. Tight money and rising interest rates discourage them.

CP investigates what is happening now

Market participants are well aware of changing conditions before published statistics confirm them. To forecast potential future trends, CP follows current research and predictions. It also reports what dealers and others are saying.

Market Psychology

Euphoria and gloom are amber lights ahead of a change in upward or downward price moves. Panel and straw poll predictions gauge majority and minority views. These polls help readers judge whether the sentiment is bullish or bearish. Will the market behave contrary to expectations?

CP respects the crowd as traders follow the trend.

If more people join the throng, prices soar to bubble heights. Participants can panic and dump commodities.

But time and time again, the crowd has been wrong when the trend is about to change.

Market Scenarios and Predictions

CP combines vertical, logical conclusions with lateral, “out of the box” thinking.

One technique is to gauge potential market scenarios.

Forecasters peer into a hazy future. A good track record is to be right two thirds of the time. Luck and chance come into play.

CP isn’t a charting service. Instead, it concentrates on the technical state of the market

Neil examines charts and respects technical analysts. Pictures illustrate trading ranges between price support and resistance levels. Charts and Quant models are important tools for traders and funds. Once the commodity is in a defined rising or falling trend, more participants join the crowd. The momentum drives prices higher or lower.

The technical state of the market is somewhat different

CP aims to find out whether the market is overbought or oversold. Is the price drifting before a major move? Is the commodity in strong or weak hands? Are producers, consumers and merchants, dominant or are hedge funds driving prices? CP will be wary of a big price rises or declines without much trading volume. What is the balance between "long" (bull) and short (bear) positions?

CP is not an advisory service. It provides information and forecasts only

CP is an interactive publication. Readers can comment and provide ideas. It will disclose potential conflicts of interest. CP respects the rights, privacy and confidentiality of subscribers and sources.

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